Eradicating hunger and malnutrition while moving towards sustainable food systems is a central pillar of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Yet, despite actions by the international community, food insecurity, nutritional deficits, and obesity are increasing. In this project, we use complex network analysis to assess the role played by agri-food trade in meeting these global challenges.
Our main goals are:
Work Package 1 (WP1) focuses on gathering the necessary information and data for the project. We review how agricultural trade laws affect food security and nutrition, with a particular focus on international trade rules from the World Trade Organization (WTO) and, more specifically, the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA). We also identify several preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and include them in our simulation model. Moreover, we collect data from reliable sources such as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), including data on trade, agricultural production, food reserves, and information about extreme weather events. This data is cleaned, organized, and prepared for analysis. Additionally, we review scientific studies about how trade contributes to food security and nutrition, looking at how trade can either help countries manage risks or create vulnerabilities.
Work Package 2 (WP2) focuses on setting up and using a simulation model to understand how shocks in the food system spread and impact food security. We continuously enhance the baseline model by including include country-specific price effects, the role of food reserves in buffering shocks, and the ability for countries to form new trade connections in response to production and trade shocks. We develop scenarios to simulate various types of shocks, such as a country-specific production shortfall (e.g., Dust Bowl-type drought in the U.S.) and a global food system shock (e.g., an extreme El Niño-Southern Oscillation). We retrieve trade data from the FAO and the World Bank to simulate how these disruptions travel through the global food trade network. The model identifies the countries that are most vulnerable to food shortages based on their ability to cope with these shocks. In addition, we integrate nutritional data, including calories, macronutrients, and micronutrients into the model to analyse how disruptions affect nutrition security. This ensures the simulations capture not only food availability but also its quality and health impacts. In a next step, we refine the model to handle multilayer networks, where disruptions in one commodity (e.g., maize) can spill over into related markets (e.g., wheat or rice), triggering wider effects. This approach allows for a more comprehensive understanding of how interconnected the global food system is. To ensure accuracy, we validate the model against real-world events like past export bans and production shortfalls (e.g., due to the war in Ukraine). This testing helps refine the model further and sets the stage for developing an early warning system for food crises in collaboration with the World Food Programme (WFP).
Work Package 3 (WP3) focuses on the dissemination of the main project findings in relation to the existing framework of international trade regulation, with a specific focus on the WTO rules and the recent bilateral trade negotiations conducted by the European Union (EU). Our collaborations with the FAO and the WFP provide valuable inputs to relate the project results to the challenges faced by analysts and practitioners in international organizations. At the final stage of the project, we give policy-oriented presentations of the main results at the FAO and WFP headquarters in Rome to bridge the gap between academic research and practitioners. Moreover, we write a policy report discussing the main findings of the project and provide recommendations for whether and how trade can be harnessed to improve nutrition and ensure food security in the context of a changing climate. Lastly, we build a simple “early warning system” capable of predicting countries’ vulnerability to specific shocks. In this endeavour, we cooperate with analysts from the FAO and other agencies focused on the anticipation of humanitarian emergencies (such as the WFP), which have made significant investments in predicting and assessing the impact of shocks affecting food production and availability. This instrument complements tools currently available to practitioners in the field of food and nutrition security, and the underlying code will be made available as open source.